Though they still have one regular season game remaining on their schedule, the real season finally begins for the Golden State Warriors this weekend, when their quest for a third consecutive trip to the NBA Finals starts with a first-round playoff matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Blazers (41-40) clinched the 8th and final seed in the Western Conference last weekend, after being locked in a back and forth with the Denver Nuggets (39-42) for much of the season. This is the matchup the Warriors said they wanted, as playing in the altitude in Denver can present a number of issues for even the most talented teams.
What they probably didn’t want was to face a Blazers team playing its best basketball of the season. Portland is coming off consecutive victories over the Jazz and Spurs, and have won 12 of their last 15, including the last three without star center Jusuf Nurkic.
The Blazers have been mostly disappointing this season, but are peaking at the right time. Is that enough to give Golden State a first-round scare?
What has changed since last season’s playoff series?
This is the second year in a row the Warriors will face the Blazers in the postseason, after beating them 4-1 in the second round a year ago. Though it was over in five games, that series was closer than numbers indicate, with the Warriors needing overtime to win Game 4, and edging Portland by just four points in Game 5.
The series was largely defined by the absence of Stephen Curry, who sustained an MCL sprain in the Warriors’ first-round series, and didn’t return until Game 3 of the second round. Curry’s performance in Game 4 ultimately decided the series against Portland, with the two-time MVP setting an NBA record by scoring 17 points in the overtime victory.
Though the series was tight at times, the Warriors’ success last year should have them feeling quite secure with this first round matchup. For one, they have a healthy Curry starting Game 1. They’ve added Kevin Durant, and while he’s still finding his groove since his own knee injury, at 75 percent, KD is better than most players on the planet.
There’s also the fact that Portland took a step back this season, despite not losing any key players. The Blazers have been outscored by opponents in 2016-17, a -0.5 per game point differential average, which ranks them ninth in the Western Conference. Their two key offseason additions were largely busts, with Evan Turner (four-years $70 million) being a non-factor, and former Warrior Festus Ezeli sitting out the entire season with a knee injury.
Still Portland’s regression has probably been a bit overstated, as last year’s fifth-seeded team only outscored opponents by 0.8 points per game, and had similar defensive and offensive rankings. They’ve also played much better in the second half of the season, due in large part to a resurgence from star point guard Damian Lillard.
In short, this Blazers team is a slightly less efficient version of last year’s squad — except for one large x-factor.
Will Jusuf Nurkic play and if so, what does that mean?
Perhaps more than any other team, Portland’s end of season rankings are a skewed reflection of how good they could potentially be. The reason for this is the late season acquisition of Bosnian center Jusuf Nurkic, whose presence has improved the team on both ends of the court. He helped push Portland to a 14-6 record in their first 20 games following the trade with Denver. Nurkic is a complete center who is both a triple-double threat, and competent rim protector.
The issue is that Nurkic has missed the last six games of the season with a fibular fracture, an injury that would put him as highly doubtful to return any time soon. Reports, however, have stated that he is already shooting around and possibly eyeing some sort of unexpected first-round comeback. A healthy Nurkic is surely not enough to tip the scales in this series, but his presence (assuming he can actually move) turns the Blazers into at least a competent team on defense, and could restrict Golden State from going with a small lineup as much as they’d like. A productive Nurkic is probably the only chance Portland has of stealing a game or two in this series.
What did the season series tell us?
The Warriors faced the Blazers four times (all before they made the trade for Nurkic), and won all four. Golden State won by two and 23 points in Portland, and by eight and 45 points in Oracle. All four games were ultimately decided by the Warriors’ electric offense being no match for the below average Portland defense. Golden State scored more than 110 points in every game, 125 or more in three of them, and shot a combined total of 52.7 percent.
That’s really where the conversation begins and ends in this series. The Warriors are simply too good of an offensive team to be beaten by a Blazers defense this bad. Portland ranked 21st in defensive efficiency this season (bottom five before they traded for Nurkic) and have a shaky defensive backcourt in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, matching up with the most offensively talented backcourt we’ve seen in a very long time. Even if Nurkic returns, the Blazers will have to play their best defense of the season just to have a chance of hanging with Golden State team.
Prediction
The Blazers are considered by many to be a dangerous team due to the firepower of Lillard (27 ppg) and McCollum (23 ppg) on the offensive end, and there is no argument that each is more than capable of taking over any game. Against a team like the Warriors that is elite on both ends, however, a lone weakness on one side of the floor is enough to spell your doom. The Blazers will put together some explosive scoring runs, and may even take a few early leads if they start out hot, but their potent backcourt will not be enough to stop the bleeding when it comes to dealing with Golden State’s offense. Nurkic’s presence could help this issue a bit, but not enough to decide more than one game.
Warriors in four.