Part of me is starting to overthink the NFL Draft. The Warriors are off on Monday and I’m twiddling my thumbs on the third floor offices at KNBR.
But part of me is warming up to the idea of the 49ers drafting Clemson wide receiver Mike Williams with the No. 2 overall pick. Like really warming up.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m cool with both safeties. Ohio State’s Malik Hooker or LSU’s Jamal Adams will translate to solid pros. Alabama defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, to me, has the best tape of any player in the draft — and a player named Drew Brees also had “shoulder concerns” many moons ago. I could be talked into Solomon Thomas, although I didn’t necessarily see the game-changing type of impact you expect from a top five pick. On paper, defense makes most sense for the 49ers.
Three weeks away from judgment day, I’m also glued to Williams’ tape, and willing to bet he becomes one of the best players from the 2017 draft class. You see a lot of Mike Evans from Johnny Manziel’s days at Texas A&M, where the receiver bailed out the quarterback often (Evans had 96 receptions, 1,321 yards and 12 touchdowns last year). You see ball skills, a massive catch radius and a feel for defenses that generally translates to touchdowns on Sundays.
Here’s NFL.com’s scouting report on the 6-foot-4 playmaker:
Prototypical height, weight, speed prospect. Fills out the uniform as well as any receiver in college football. Sells vertical push to create an early hip turn from backpedaling cornerbacks. Uses hands to create late separation on vertical throws. Long arms and big hands can go get throws at their highest point, snatching 50/50 balls away from his in-air competitors. Ball tracking is impeccable. Able to track it inside, outside or over his shoulder. Hands catcher who plucks it away from his body. Has body control to dig out the low balls and contort to grab throws Deshaun Watson leaves behind him. Concentration ramps up when routes take him between the hashes. Works middle of the field with no reservations about what is lingering. Has been asked to work all three levels of the field at Clemson. Can make cornerbacks miss after the catch and extend his play. Needs more commitment as a run blocker but has frame and strength to make a difference as a blocker.
As John Lynch wraps up his tour of the country and as Kyle Shanahan finishes watching the final bits of tape organized by Adam Peters, deliberations are set to begin in Santa Clara. Williams won’t be dismissed either.
First things first: Just because the 49ers signed a bunch of offensive players in free agency doesn’t mean the team will completely ignore skill players at No. 2. I reported at the combine San Francisco really liked Leonard Fournette and wouldn’t cross him off their draft board just because Carlos Hyde is here. I’m not as sure about Williams, but as Shanahan says, the tape doesn’t lie. Wide receiver is a refurbished position, but it’s nowhere near elite like Atlanta’s. Selecting Williams would be a stunner, but in the long run, could make the most sense.
The case for a receiver this early in the draft is quite simple: Alpha dogs never hit free agency. The top 14 receivers in yardage last season were all drafted by the team they were producing for — Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Evans, Amari Cooper and Demaryius Thomas were all first-rounders. Every now and then, someone such as Alshon Jeffery will hit the open market, and the 49ers are very fortunate to have Pierre Garcon. But when it comes to finding your No. 1 receiver, the draft is your best bet. And when it comes to building Shanahan’s ideal offense, a strapping weapon at receiver is a luxury item that led to records being shattered in 2016. No. 2 seems like a stretch for Williams, but there’s no such thing as reaching for a player if you project him to be star.
I generally dislike bringing up a school’s history at the position, but Clemson wide receivers are starting to become like Penn State linebackers. Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney is starting to build a factory at the position with Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins, Buffalo’s Sammy Watkins and Pittsburgh’s Martavius Bryant all flourishing in the league. Williams was arguably more impressive than all three with the Tigers.
I get it: I’ve been the one touting Shanahan’s ability to squeeze the most out of later round draft picks. We repeat the same names in many articles — Kirk Cousins, Alfred Morris, Taylor Gabriel. If Shanahan is an offensive wizard, why not stack the defense and slow cook the offense? It’s the most rational argument.
There are certainly negatives about Williams. A neck injury forced him to miss the entire 2015 season. There are route running concerns. He lacks the top-end speed of an Antonio Brown, surely. Others say Western Michigan prospect Corey Davis has the brighter future in the pros.
Lynch has long maintained the 49ers will draft who they think the best player available is. They want their first pick to be a slam dunk, building block who also makes an immediate impact. And if that’s the case, serious thought-provoking discussions about Williams are probably happening as you read this.