If you read into the tea leaves of the NFL offseason, the way the 49ers prioritized offense in free agency would suggest that adding a violent player to the defense seems like a foregone conclusion with the No. 2 overall pick.
Unless Kyle Shanahan is enamored with the superstar potential of LSU running back Leonard Fournette — not out of the question — the new regime has an abundance of options to consider after the Cleveland Browns presumably take Texas A&M edge rusher Myles Garrett to start the draft.
GM John Lynch could make his first pick the position he knows best — LSU safety Jamal Adams or Ohio State safety Malik Hooker. He could choose a native son and a third straight defensive end in Stanford’s Solomon Thomas. He could decide the outstanding film outweighs shoulder concerns and select mauling Alabama defensive tackle Jonathan Allen.
Most are in agreement: Trust Shanahan will take care of the offense and draft the best defensive player on your board. Pick the young man you project as a surefire Pro Bowler and never look back.
It’s the debate about the second round that is dividing 49ers fans and needs to be heavily mapped out by Shanahan and Lynch.
There’s growing belief four or five quarterbacks will be selected in the first round. The Chargers are the latest team becoming linked to Clemson’s Deshaun Watson; the Saints all of a sudden could be players for Mitchell Trubisky at the end of round one. In limbo with Tony Romo, the Texans still don’t have an answer at the position, and with a stocked roster, could consider pulling Patrick Mahomes or Davis Webb off the board at No. 25. The Browns, Jets and Cardinals all need long term answers.
In this unstable quarterback market — and with the strong notion of Kirk Cousins’ intentions for next offseason — the 49ers have a major decision to make right now: Is it worth trading back into the first round for one of these QB’s?
The argument against trading back into the first round is quite simple. The 49ers shouldn’t be giving away any assets in Year 1 of a rebuild. This roster should have Shanahan and Lynch’s stamp all across it. There are still holes on this roster at wide receiver, tight end, edge rusher, middle linebacker and cornerback. Giving up extra third and fourth round picks to move back into the first round will almost guarantee a slower rebuild. An influx of young talent should be the only priority the new regime has.
The argument for drafting one is also quite simple. As Shanahan says, if you don’t have one of the seven best throwers on the planet, you don’t really have a chance to win a championship. If Shanahan identifies one of those arms in the draft is Mahomes, Webb or DeShone Kizer, sacrificing a couple of Jimmy and Joes from the fourth round is worth the risk. Shanahan was hired first and foremost because of his wizardry with quarterbacks. He has final say here and if he’s willing to make a big bet, break out the dice and poker chips.
Of course, there is the Cousins element to the equation. If the 49ers are convinced they can deliver him, why would they even bother taking a quarterback for the future so early?
Well, there are multiple reasons why.
First: I’ve been yelling from the mountaintops, the quarterback market is constantly fluctuating. A year ago Matt Ryan’s career was floundering and Watson went into this college football season as the consensus top overall pick. Football changes. Cousins could break his leg next season, he could win a playoff game for the Redskins, he could bond with the new GM and want to keep his wife and soon to be newborn in Washington. Life changes. There are no 100 percent guarantees here.
Second: Developing Mahomes or Webb and letting him sit three or four seasons behind Cousins is not exactly a bad scenario to be in. Lynch and Shanahan are both forward-thinking enough to take an Aaron Rodgers slow cooker approach at QB. Mahomes and Webb are both considered to have outstanding arms but need professional refinement — playing from within the pocket, marrying footwork to eyes etc. These are things Cousins and Shanahan can help them master. And as Cousins is well aware of this two quarterback scenario, it also puts pressure on him to perform right away.
You always hear NFL teams say we’re picking the best player on the board. But we all know it’s not as simple as that, especially when you don’t have a franchise quarterback in place. Part of this six-year contract is the ability to take chances.
Whatever direction the 49ers go with the No. 34 will be telling about Lynch and Shanahan’s football philosophy. If they take Mahomes that high, they’re prioritizing the position and willing to take a risk in solving it. If they choose a wide receiver like East Carolina’s Zay Jones pictured above, they’ll legitimately be flanking Brian Hoyer with enough weapons to make some things happen next year. If they choose two defensive players like Washington’s Budda Baker pictured above, it’ll send a message that the organization truly believes in Shanahan’s ability in elevating the skill players he has.
Five weeks away from the draft, the No. 34 pick is more intriguing for the future of the 49ers than pick No. 2. Having the right plan now well before the clock starts ticking on Day 2 of the NFL Draft is of utmost importance.