“If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas.” Don Meredith said it on Monday night football decades ago. Last night in Super Bowl 51 there were many ifs and buts for the Falcons, and a piñata-full of candy and nuts for the Patriots. There were at least a dozen tipping point plays and all went New England’s way.
In order to come back from a 28-3 lead, that’s what had to happen. The Falcons helped with shaky play-calling, decision-making, and execution. Lost in the mix, a couple of big holding penalties by the Falcons. To Tom Brady’s credit, the door was cracked open, and he kicked it in. That’s what great players do in championships, and he is the greatest quarterback in the game’s history.
The Patriots have played seven Super Bowls in the Bill Belichick Era, and none was decided by more than four points, until last night. And this one went overtime, balanced on a series of borderline plays. Also, consider the fact that practically nothing was going New England’s way until the end of the third quarter.
Even after they scored their first touchdown, the Gostkowski’s extra point hits the right upright. Another would-be touchdown drive was short-circuited by a couple of Grady Jarrett sacks of Tom Brady. The Patriots settled for a field goal to make it 28-12 and it still looked like it wasn’t in the cards for them.
And then, “it” happened. As Gloria in “White Men Can’t Jump” said to Billy, “IT??? IT???” You knew it was ominous. A series of tipping-point plays for the Patriots, a series of What-Ifs” for the Falcons. For example:
If a Brady blooper to Bennett had been picked off…if Ryan had just gotten rid of the ball before the strip-sack, or hadn’t dropped deep on 3rd and 1…if the Falcons had just run the ball so they don’t lose 23 yards and get out of field goal range…with a chance to seal the game.
If Edelman had been a split second late on that bobbled catch…if Alford picks off that pass, or at least bats the ball down in the pileup with Edelman that looked like a game of “Twister”…if Amendola is just a couple of inches short on a two-point conversion to tie the game.
Those are just a handful of the many tipping point plays in one half of a Super Bowl. A matter of inches or split-seconds. Think of all the other tipping point plays in all the close Super Bowls that went in New England’s favor. What if the Seahawks had run the ball?
That’s what it’ll remain. A “what if?’
This is not to say the Patriots are just plain lucky. They’ve been good enough to take advantage of fortune, random plays, and bad decisions when they happen. They also wore down the Falcons with a huge edge in number of plays and time of possession. They also converted key third-and-long throws, as well as a fourth-down conversion.
Luck is sometimes a factor on random plays with an oddly-shaped ball. If you make the wrong decisions, you’ll often be on the wrong end of fortune. Also, if you are gassed. Also, if your opponent is experienced in tight championship games.
The Falcons paid for their missteps, in full. The Patriots and Brady deserve credit for taking advantage of them. They pulled off the epic comeback and the Falcons are authors of an epic collapse.
Is it better to be lucky than good? Does it have to be one or the other? The Patriots are both.