NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport is reporting Colin Kaepernick will opt out of his contract after the 2016 offseason.
But that doesn’t exactly mean he’s leaving the 49ers.
From Rap Sheet:
Kaepernick will, in fact, void his contract before the league year and become a free agent, sources said. This creates a scenario where Kaepernick can test the market, sign a contract that gives him much greater peace of mind, and still end up back with the Niners.
Some factors are at play. First, he’s playing great, becoming the quarterback coach Chip Kelly always imagined in his system (even during his time in Philadelphia). Second, the once-strained relationship between the franchise and the quarterback is in a very good place.
Here’s my quick take:
Rapoport and many others are assuming something that is not a fact: that Kaepernick will continue to play at a high level over these last five games.
What if Kaepernick doesn’t? What if he starts throwing interceptions, the offense sputters and the 49ers lose 15 straight games to close the season?
That scenario is feasible, and it would mean Kaepernick’s current $19 million contract he has on the table for 2017 from the 49ers would be his best bet of both getting paid and playing in 2017. Opting out would create a nightmare scenario where a team may not pounce on Kaepernick until June or July, when they have a quarterback injury or take a desperate flier.
Rapoport is the best in the business, but he also fails to mention Kaepernick’s market will be much drier than most other free agents. There are certain teams — even those that need a quarterback — who will not even consider Kaepernick because of his stance against the national anthem.
I was one of the first people beating the drum for the 49ers to bench Blaine Gabbert. I’m glad Colin Kaepernick is playing well, and I’m not surprised by it.
But Greg Cosell and I have both argued this: the 49ers need to be very careful if they are planning their 2017 season around Kaepernick. Betting on his consistency is far too big of a risk.
Another thing to consider: Kaepernick has openly said he doesn’t have much of a relationship with GM Trent Baalke. If Baalke somehow stays, the 49ers chances of keeping Kap will lessen. If Baalke goes, Kap will have greater odds of returning.