“You’re always trying to find ways to learn something from what other clubs are doing, and looking at your own strengths, and relative weaknesses and find out how to better maximize your potential in the postseason.” – Bobby Evans on the Larry Kruger Podcast
The Giants inability to close out games was a critical weakness for the club in 2016. San Francisco blew a league leading 30 saves and had their campaign ultimately come to an end by allowing four runs in a ninth inning meltdown to the Cubs in Game 4 of the NLDS.
Those Cubs made it to the World Series, due in large part to Aroldis Chapman, one of the best closers in all of baseball, who sealed Sunday’s Game 5 World Series victory with an eight out save that couldn’t help remind one of Madison Bumgarner’s heroics out of the bullpen in Game 7 of the 2014 World Series.
Chicago’s opponents, the Cleveland Indians, have also ridden a dominant late-inning arm, even more so, to success this postseason, with Andrew Miller allowing just a single run in 17 innings of work.
If nothing else, this postseason has shown the immense value of having an elite option at closer, and should incentivize the Giants not to simply fill their vacancy with a competent option, but shell out the cash for one of the handful of high profile relievers, Chapman being one of them, that will hit the open market when the 2017 offseason begins.
Here’s a list of the three top candidates that San Francisco should target, as well as one in house solution if they fail to do so
Free agents
Aroldis Chapman
Age: 28
2015 Salary: $11,325,000 / Unrestricted free agent
Stats: 1.55 ERA, 36 SV, 92.3 SV %
From a raw talent standpoint, few can compete with Chapman. After all, a left-hander who can pump 104-MPH is essentially unprecedented in the history of major league baseball.
The only reasons to potentially stay away from Chapman have nothing to do from his performance on the field, but rather the ugly domestic violence accusations that lead to a 30 game suspension last season. Somewhat surprisingly, that incident did not effect his value on the trade market, and Chapman seems likely to command the largest contract for a reliever in MLB history, possibly a five-year deal worth around $70 million.
If the Giants are willing to shell out the cash and are not turned off by the apparent character issues, Chapman will be one of the two top targets for the Giants and every other team looking to sign a big name closer this offseason.
Kenley Jansen
Age: 29
2015 Salary: $10,650,000 / Unrestricted free agent
Stats: 1.83 ERA, 47 SV, 88.6 SV %
Jansen’s stock has never been higher as he comes off an incredible performance for the Dodgers in the postseason, and is also likely to command a similar contract to Chapman this offseason. The Giants would obviously have extra incentive to pursue Jansen, with the added benefit of depleting their biggest rival of one of their most valuable assets. That fact alone may give Jansen the edge over Chapman on the Giants big board.
Jansen is coming off his best season, posting a career high 44 saves, and held the potent Chicago Cubs offense to a single hit in six innings of work during the NLCS. Jansen has been noncommittal regarding any plans to stay in Los Angeles.
Mark Melancon
Age: 31
2015 Salary: $9,650,000 / Unrestricted free agent
Stats: 1.64 ERA, 47 SV, 92.1 SV %
The Giants were reportedly close to signing Melancon at the trade deadline, and many believe that Evans’s comments about feeling like a knucklehead for not getting a deal done had to do with being outbid by Washington for the 31-year-old’s services.
Melencon is appealing because he is unlikely to command the same level of price tag of guys like Chapman and Jansen, despite still being one of the top closers in the game, though may be a half-step behind the highest tier candidates. Part of that has to do with Melancon being slightly older, he will be 32 on opening day, while both Jansen and Chapman will be 29.
Still, Melancon has been lights out since 2013, and with the Giants also looking to spend money to bring a potent outfield bat, Melancon may make the most overall sense as a target.
In house option
Derek Law
Age: 26
2015 Salary: $507,500
Stats: 2.13 ERA, 1 SV
When healthy, rookie Derek Law was probably the Giants best reliever throughout the 2016 season, and with Santiago Casilla’s struggles and likely exit this offseason, seems to be the only option to close games currently on San Francisco’s roster.
Though Law was mostly stellar coming out of the pen, he has no experience as a major league closer, and with everything that happened to the Giants’s last season, minimizing risk is probably priority number one.
Law obviously has the potential to be a great closer one day, and could probably benefit from being one of the Giants’s eighth inning options for a couple of years as an audition for an even higher leverage position down the line.
At this point Law should be seen as an insurance policy should the Giants strikeout on landing a big name in free agency. That wouldn’t be an ideal situation, but at least the Giants would have someone they could trot out with relative confidence if it happens.