Twelve runs in the last seven games.
That’s what the San Francisco Giants’ offense has been able to muster during the most crucial stretch of the season. Unsurprisingly they’ve gone 2-5 in those contests, and haven’t scored more than three runs in one of them, something that continued in last night’s listless 7-2 loss in San Diego.
It’s easy to point to the bullpen as the main culprit for the Giants’ historic second half free fall. They have blown a Major League leading 29 saves after all, but part of the reason the Giants have been in so many close games to begin with has everything to do with their sputtering offense.
Sputtering may be a generous term to describe whatever has happened to the bats since the All-Star break. The Giants offense is dead last in the league in runs scored since that point. The pitching staff? They are 12th in ERA since the break. Not bad. The bullpen? They are surprisingly better, with the 10th best ERA in the majors in the second half. Again, not bad.
When you break it down even a little bit, it’s clear that a lack of runs is what has really crippled the 2016 Giants.
Take what they’ve done recently against San Diego for example, a team the Giants have lost to in seven of their last eight contests despite being 24 games under .500. In the last five games against the Padres, the Giants have lost to the following starting pitchers: Edwin Jackson (6.00 ERA, Giants scored two runs) Paul Clemens (4.48 ERA, no runs) Luis Perdomo (5.58 ERA, one run). In the one game San Francisco did win, they scored two runs off Christian Friedrich, he of a 4.46 ERA.
It’s easy to see why the Giants’s pitching issues at the end of games have been the much louder conversation when dissecting what has gone wrong. When a pitcher blows a save, you literally see the game slip away. It allows for an easy scapegoat, someone to point to as the reason for the loss. It’s also, in theory, a much more solvable problem than a team wide offensive struggle. You just have to find one guy who can get the job done, not eight.
With the quality staff that the Giants have, all they need from their offense is average production. That’s what they got in the first half of the season, and they entered the All-Star break with the best record in majors. In the second half they have the worst, a mirror image of where their offense sits.
Tonight the Giants once again have the edge over the Padres on paper, as Madison Bumgarner (14-9, 2.57 ERA) seeks his 100th victory in a face off against Jarred Cosart (0-4, 5.63 ERA). The Giants have had the starting pitching advantage on paper in six of their last seven losses to San Diego. They had it in yesterday’s loss too, in a game in where the Padres also started six rookies, including three players making their second Major League appearance.
This game isn’t technically a must-win, but it’s about as close as you can get. The Giants have their ace going, are facing a struggling pitcher, against an inexperienced lineup, with their postseason hopes hanging in the balance. San Francisco is clinging to a half game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the second Wild Card spot, who are currently leading the Cubs 9-3 in the eighth inning at the time of writing.
The Giants will need Bumgarner to be himself tonight if they are to at least hold their place in the three team Wild Card battle, but that won’t be enough. In his last outing, Bumgarner didn’t give up a single run in seven innings, and the Giants lost 2-1. He will need the sleeping offense to wake up, or at least crack an eye open, to have a chance. If not, it’s probably time to put this season to bed.