In underwhelming fashion, Blaine Gabbert was named the 49ers’ Week 1 starting quarterback on a Saturday afternoon conference call.
For Chip Kelly, it’s not a question of will Gabbert get benched, it’s a question of when. And the decision about when to pull the plug is much more complex than it appears on the surface.
Besides his dilapidated track record, the fear with Gabbert sustaining success in Kelly’s offense is his timid quarterbacking style. Gabbert fully understands if he makes mistakes, he’s going to be relegated to the bench. So like anyone whose job is at stake, he’s not going to put himself at risk. He’s already a quarterback that doesn’t trust his arm to fit the football in tight spaces. He’s completely fine with check-down passes to running backs and tight ends. Gabbert is going to give you the bare minimum to keep you in the game.
One thing is for sure: Kelly won’t be able to cope with Gabbert looking lost in the pocket. Kelly’s system has never been one that lulls you to sleep. Philadelphia was a quick-strike offense, creating a reputation on building commanding leads in the first half. Kelly’s patience is going to wear thin if Gabbert is leaving plays out on the field because he’s fearful of throwing a pick.
So if the 49ers offense is struggling to gain traction and score points, when will Kelly turn over the reigns to Colin Kaepernick? Actually, Kap’s window to play in 2016 is much smaller than you think.
Obviously, winning football games will be a key in this decision for the first two months. But once November rolls around — when the 49ers will be well under .500 and out of contention — putting Kaepernick on the field won’t be worth it. The 49ers will be on the hook for his $14.5 million salary in 2017 if he’s unable to pass a physical on April 1. This is the exact reason GM Trent Baalke opted to keep Christian Ponder on the 53-man roster.
If Kaepernick is going to start games for the 49ers in 2016, it has to be in October when the season is still technically alive. There’s a pint-sized chance Kelly can capture lightning in a bottle with Kaepernick, but it’s worth the shot. If it wasn’t, the team would’ve traded Kaepernick earlier in the offseason to Denver, or would’ve just cut bait with him last week. They would’ve ended all the drama. Kelly, justifiably, wants to give Kaepernick one last chance on the field.
The obstacle for the 49ers is that it’s impossible to believe Kaepernick will improve by holding a clipboard on the bench. Mental reps in the film room and on the practice field only serve as a theoretical driving range, not an 18-hole golf course. The moment Kelly does make the switch to Kap, bumps and bruises are to be expected. He didn’t play enough in the preseason to fully grasp Kelly’s system. Banking on Kaepernick to morph into some savior is grossly overestimating his capabilities, but anything short of that will be deemed a failure.
From a human nature standpoint, Gabbert really is in a lose-lose situation. The 49ers have created a scenario that will have him looking over his shoulder after every missed throw, and have armed him with one reliable receiver. Whether it was against backups or not, Kaepernick did excel in the preseason finale against the Chargers. Any interception, anytime the team settles for a field goal, even any three-and-out, will leave 49ers fans restless and yearning for a quarterback change.
Gabbert may last as the QB1 longer than we think, but only if Kelly is willing to bend. There’s a chance the head coach grades the QB on a curved scale in September. Opening the season against the Los Angeles, Carolina and Seattle defenses is a tough task, even for a competent quarterback. If Gabbert plays like he did in the preseason — inaccurate passing, but no interceptions and no sacks — his leash could extend longer. A victory over any of these opponents, even if it’s behind the legs of Carlos Hyde or a strong defensive performance, will still count as a win on Gabbert’s stat sheet, giving him further breathing room.
What we do know is that the 49ers aren’t overly enthusiastic about Gabbert. By waiting until Sept. 3 to name him the starter, Kelly made his anxiety clear about the quarterback position. Kaepernick’s poorly-timed arm fatigue put the entire competition in a holding pattern. The preseason did very little to quell any fears about the quarterback position. Gabbert won the job by default.
At a bare minimum, Gabbert’s leash as the starter has to last three games. Benching him any sooner than that will make Kelly and offensive coaching staff look foolish for naming him the starter to begin with. Even if Gabbert is floundering, benching him too early would be waving a white flag, a confirmation that the 49ers struggle in the decision-making department.
But with Kaepernick’s 2017 contract being held over their heads, the call to the bullpen shouldn’t last until November. Gabbert’s race against the calendar has already begun.