SANTA CLARA — Blaine Gabbert has the upper hand to win the 49ers’ Week 1 starting quarterback job.
It’s unclear if he realizes this is a losing proposition.
San Francisco’s first three games of the 2016 season come against the Rams, Panthers and Seahawks — arguably the three best defenses in the NFC. Aaron Donald, Luke Kuechly and Richard Sherman have already begun to lick their chops. The high-flying Cowboys and Super Bowl contending Cardinals follow in early October.
Gabbert, as the nation saw on Sunday against the Texans, is having trouble running the vanilla version of Chip Kelly’s offense. Imagine when hundreds of game-planned details are added to the play-call sheets for the week. Couple that with accuracy issues he’s shown for most of the summer and a hodgepodge group of receivers, and, well, you have a formula that equals him getting benched early in the season.
If and when the 49ers start out 1-4 or 0-5, the rallying cries from NFL Network talking heads and the entire Bay Area will be strong for Colin Kaepernick. The backup quarterback is always the most popular man on a bad team, an unwritten but biblical NFL rule. No player understands that dynamic more than Kaepernick, whose character and skill set took a pummeling in the first half of the 2015 season.
This is not to say Kaepernick is a better option for the 49ers in 2016; there really is no right choice for Kelly to make. But by losing this quarterback competition, and letting the rest of the offense try and gel together, Kaepernick will be in a much better position to succeed should he enter the lineup in October.
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Obviously, Kaepernick’s capacity for quick-thinking in the pocket is an unwavering concern, as are his own accuracy issues. But there’s a reason Kelly hasn’t already blown the whistle and handed Gabbert the starting job.
Kaepernick has shown flashes in training camp that he very well could be better for Kelly’s offense than Gabbert. He’ll never return to the level of play that got the 49ers to the Super Bowl, but it’s become evident Kelly doesn’t believe the 2015 nightmare is all Kaepernick’s capable of. Underneath all the surgeries and all the flak he’s caught the last two seasons, there is talent. Much more than Gabbert has, at the very least. If both quarterbacks are going to play inconsistently, wouldn’t you rather ride with the one who has had prior success?
Kelly has put lipstick on a pig before, making his offense manageable with mediocre quarterbacks in Philadelphia. Nick Foles saw his career evaporate without Kelly’s expertise, and the Broncos really have no idea what they are getting into with Mark Sanchez. Kelly was hired by Jed York and Trent Baalke in large part because of his quarterback-whispering successes.
This scenario of Kaepernick playing relief pitcher may have been Kelly’s plan all along. The head coach has been willing to play musical chairs with quarterbacks in all three of his previous NFL seasons, benching both Mike Vick and Foles, and the latter was coming off of a celebrated 27 touchdown, 2 interception season. Now some of that toggling was because of injuries, but patience is not one Kelly’s hallmark traits. If Gabbert is steering the ship in the wrong direction, Kelly won’t hesitate to give him a quick hook.
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The blame for this mess can fall squarely on Baalke’s shoulders. Had he drafted a Paxton Lynch, or a Connor Cook, or even a Dak Prescott in the fourth round (instead of cornerback Rashard Robinson), the 49ers could turn a lost season over in late October to a young quarterback. Had he even even traded for a Geno Smith or Tom Savage, at least there would be fresh intrigue. And if Kelly really thought Kaepernick was completely washed up, why wouldn’t Baalke have pulled the trigger on a trade that would have landed them a fourth round pick from Denver?
It’s understood that solid quarterbacks don’t grow on trees. Should the 49ers go 5-11 or 6-10 this season, it’ll put them out of range for Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson. Whoever lands the No. 1 overall pick will likely need Watson just as badly as the 49ers do, but maybe Kelly could lobby for a trade like he did with Marcus Mariota. Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford could reach their boiling points in Chicago and Detroit by next offseason.
It’s still too early to do anything but speculate at this point. But the fact remains: the 49ers chose to ignore the most important position in sports, and because of that, they run the risk of watching a large portion of the fan base choose to spend Sundays doing something other than watch a sputtering team.