A month ago, the Giants never could have imagined the seat they’re sitting in. Flip the calendar back a page. Madison Bumgarner nearly threw a no-hitter against the Diamondbacks on July 10 to segue the scorching-hot Giants into the All-Star break.
They were up 6.5 games on the Dodgers in the NL West, 24 games over .500 and boasting a 73.7 percent chance to win the division according to FanGraphs. My how a month can change things.
The Giants have won eight games since Bumgarner’s gem, exactly 32 days ago. They’re only a game up on the Dodgers in the NL West, and despite clinging to the divison lead, FanGraphs now pegs the Dodgers (61.2 percent) as favorites to win the division over the Giants (38.8 percent).
So instead of looking back at the dark rain cloud that’s loomed over the Giants since the All-Star break, here’s a look ahead. Both the Giants and Dodgers have comparable paths in the season’s final stretch, including nine head-to-head contests.
| Giants | Dodgers | |
| Games remaining | 48 | 48 |
| NL West games | 27 | 29 |
| Games against winning teams | 27 | 21 |
| Home/away games | 28/20 | 22/26 |
The best news for Giants fans is 27, the amount of inner-division games remaining. The Giants’ 31 wins against division opponents are tied for the most in baseball, and are the most inner-division wins in the National League. There’s no immediate reprieve — an upcoming 10-game homestand is against playoff contenders outside the NL West — but the Giants last 13 games of the year come against division opponents (3 @ LA, 4 @ SD, 3 vs. COL, 3 vs. LA).
The Dodgers have faired almost as well against the mediocrity of the NL West. They’re 26-21 against NL West opponents, and 40-24 against teams with a losing record. After finishing six games back east against the Yankees and Marlins in mid-September, the Dodgers’ final 17 games come against division opponents. There’s six games with the Giants mixed in there, including a season-ending three-game set at AT&T Park.
Those will be the season-defining games for both the Giants and Dodgers. Outside of those pivotal series, the Giants’ toughest test is right in front of them. The Orioles and Pirates are coming to San Francisco for three-game tilts, then the Mets play at AT&T Park for four. Baltimore is the only one of those teams currently sitting in a playoff position, but the Mets and Pirates aren’t far behind. They’ll all challenge the Giants’ .500 record against winning teams.
Winning teams are rooted in the Giants’ second-half struggles, and they’ve played an awful lot of games against them. Five of the first eight second-half series have come against winning teams, and the Giants have one series win to show for it. Now they’re in the midst of a treacherous, 19-game stretch against playoff contenders.
It’s quite possible the Giants can come out of it still in pole position, but it’s no surprise they’re not favorites to win the division title any longer. The Dodgers’ toughest test comes in two weeks, when they play six straight against the Giants and Cubs. But those contests are at home, where the Dodgers have won 63 percent of their games.
Their path to the postseason reads a lot easier than the Giants. Their biggest obstacle is what they don’t have: Clayton Kershaw. If nothing else, the Giants can rest on that. There might not be much else to unless they can beat up on some winning teams.