Longtime San Jose Mercury-News columnist Tim Kawakami posted a piece about the Warriors expressing internal interest in free agent Dirk Nowitzki. Give it a read. On Tuesday, Dirk officially opted out of his deal with the Dallas Mavericks, which would’ve paid him $8.7 million.
Forgive me if I’m not buying the rationale that Dirk is the game-changing player the Warriors need to return as NBA champions. I see him fitting in. I don’t see him as a reason why Golden State would thrive in the playoffs.
There’s no denying Nowitzki’s impressive longevity, as he’s lasted an incredible 18 years in the league. He was at times breathtaking last season in Dallas (18.6 ppg, 6.5 rebounds, in 31.5 minutes per game) and arguably their best player. He’s as savvy as they come.
Then you remember three things about him: He’s 38, he’s a poor defender and he refuses to score in the post.
If we learned anything about the 2016 NBA postseason, it’s that the Warriors need less shooters and more players who can be physical around the rim. Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli were not threats to score the basketball in the paint. They both weren’t finishers at the rim. If you’re going to let both young players walk, you need an explosive replacement who you can trust as an isolation slasher and/or a big body who can be trusted to score points in the paint. Barnes and Ezeli have crafted roles that would help the Warriors, they just couldn’t execute them with consistency. When three-point shots weren’t falling from Steph Curry or Klay Thompson, especially in Game 7, the Warriors needed another workhorse alongside Draymond Green to pick up the load elsewhere on the court.
That’s exactly problem with Dirk: he took 1,112 shots last season and only 14.2 percent of his attempts came from within seven-feet of the hoop. Steve Kerr can’t ask Nowitzki to transform into some bulldozing center overnight. Dirk is what he is: one of the best shot-makers in league history. That and some rebounding is really all he brings to the table. There’s just not enough versatility. Oh, and he won’t be running much on fast breaks.
So we’ve established Dirk is not going to give you any inside presence. Maybe you think Nowitzki can just be a corner three-point specialist replacing Barnes? Actually, no. His worst shot according to NBA.com is the corner three, where he went just 11/36 all of last season. Not only is he not effective at that shot, he barely attempts it. It’s not his strength at all.
Let’s talk defense. ESPN.com has created what they believe is an accurate defensive rating system. Andrew Bogut ranked No. 1 on the list, Draymond Green was No. 3, Ezeli even checked in at No. 40. What about Dirk? He’s No. 152. There will be times you’ll want to play Dirk late in the fourth quarter because of his shooting ability, but other teams (Cleveland and Oklahoma City) will use an athletic piece to blow by him.
Again, Dirk splashing threes at Oracle Arena would be a riot. The crowd would love him; the Warriors would feed off his personality. He seems like a Kerr guy. He would fit right in.
But as the Warriors reconfigure their roster, they need to realize they got severely outplayed in the post during the playoffs. Tristan Thompson and Steven Adams gave the team fits underneath. Bogut can’t be relied upon to do everything by himself, and the team needs more offense to pair with his defense. Since it seems Golden State’s front office is really ready to change the roster, free agents such as Atlanta’s Al Horford and Chicago’s Joakim Noah should be discussed in Bob Myers’ office more than Nowitzki should. Trades for younger players should also be considered.
The Warriors have enough shooters. They should want to get tougher. They should want players who, alongside Green, will poke opponents in the chest down low. If Myers brings Dirk Nowitzki in as the headlining offseason signing along with other backups, it won’t be enough to address the Warriors’ recently exposed flaws.